|
|
|
In December 1999, as Israel and Syria seemed suddenly to be
making real progress toward a peace agreement, President Bill Clinton
called President Hafez al-Assad with a request. Israel, he said, had
rock-solid information on the location in a Damascus cemetery of the
remains of three Israeli soldiers who had gone missing in action during
the Lebanon war of the 1980's. Would Assad permit an American forensic
team to extract the remains? Such a gesture, Clinton noted, would go a
long way toward persuading the wary Israeli public that Syria was
serious about opening a new era of peaceful relations. Assad, who
historically had rejected all steps designed to reach the Israeli
public, said yes. The team flew to Damascus, received full Syrian
cooperation and dug up the remains. They were not, however, those of the
missing Israelis.
This episode, which as far as I can
tell has never before been made public, is recounted by Dennis Ross in
''The Missing Peace,'' his important, voluminous and keenly balanced
memoir of 12 years as the central figure of American Middle East peace
policies. The anecdote and its aftermath are a useful illustration of
several themes that Ross develops. First, he is persuaded that at a
certain moment, Assad was genuinely trying to make a deal with Israel.
This is not widely accepted outside the Arab world. Second, Israel and
its negotiating partners, both Syrians and Palestinians, were
perpetually out of sync with one another. When Ross reported Assad's
enthusiasm to the Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Barak, Barak came back
with a new set of demands. And third, Barak did hope to make a
far-reaching deal with Syrians and Palestinians, but ambitions for
accomplishing both made the attainment of either more difficult. Barak
wanted two years to withdraw settlers from the Golan Heights, to be
returned to Syria as part of the deal. Why so long? He could not
confront settlers from both the Golan Heights and the West Bank
simultaneously.
Both deals failed, of course, the
victims of numerous missteps on all sides. Explaining the collapse of
Middle East peace efforts of recent years is the focus of a small and
growing library. But no one has the broad perspective of Dennis Ross,
who began his service under the first George Bush and continued it
through eight years of Clinton and several Israeli governments. For that
reason alone, this is a work of historical significance.
To the question of what went wrong,
Ross offers two answers, one simple and one messy but no less true or
important. The simple answer is that in the end Yasir Arafat, the
Palestinian leader, was the principal cause of the failure. Ross
illustrates this in numerous ways. The most important and dramatic is an
account of late December 2000, when, with only a few weeks left in his
administration, President Clinton suggested a set of guidelines to end
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Israeli cabinet accepted the
framework with several reservations that were within the guidelines laid
out by the president. Arafat did not. Ross recounts watching Clinton
tell Arafat that by not responding to the American ideas, ''he was
killing Barak and the peace camp in Israel.'' Arafat did not budge. As
Ross puts it: ''A comprehensive deal was not possible with Arafat. . . .
He could live with a process, but not with a conclusion.''
The second explanation, the messier
one, is that neither side had taken sufficient steps to grasp the needs
and neuroses of the other. Ross says ''the Israelis acted as if all
decisions should be informed by their needs, not by possible Palestinian
needs or reactions.'' Regarding the Arabs, he writes, ''The kind of
transformation that would make it possible for the Arab world to
acknowledge that Israel has needs has yet to take place.'' As for the
American role, Ross puts it this way: ''Our great failing was not in
misreading Arafat. Our great failing was in not creating the earlier
tests that would have either exposed Arafat's inability to ultimately
make peace or forced him to prepare his people for compromise.''
In truth, another realization emerges
from these pages: Israel and the Arabs were always close to abandoning
their negotiations. Behind ceremonies that from a distance seemed to
indicate reconciliation lay walkouts and shouting matches. The most
famous moment of Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking was the 1993 handshake
between Rabin and Arafat on the South Lawn of the White House, yet until
the very end both sides were threatening to stay away. Fifteen minutes
before the ceremony, Ross was on one phone shouting at the Palestinians
while on the other phone Martin Indyk, a top American official at the
time, was shouting at the Israelis.
Ross's analysis of the peace process is
astute, but the real service he performs in this book is less in
explaining the meaning of events than in setting the record straight.
There has been much dispute over what was offered to the Palestinians in
the 2000 Camp David meeting and in the months that followed. This book
should end that discussion. The final deal, made orally to the
Palestinians and Israelis by Clinton, is laid out in the appendix.
Broadly, the ideas were these:
Territory: The Palestinians would get
all of Gaza and between 94 and 96 percent of the West Bank. In exchange
for what they would not get of the West Bank, Israel would be required
to give up between 1 percent and 3 percent of its own land.
Security: Israel would withdraw from
the West Bank over 36 months with an international force gradually
introduced into the area. A small Israeli presence in fixed locations
would remain in the Jordan Valley under the authority of the
international force for another 36 months. Palestine would be defined as
a ''nonmilitarized state'' with a strong internal security force and an
international presence for border and deterrence
purposes.
Continue> |
|
|
|
|
|
 |
Prime
Minister Ehud Barak of Israel and the Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat
meeting for talks at the border of the Gaza Strip, July 11, 1999. |
| |
| |
| |
| Jerusalem:
What is Arab in the city would be Palestinian and what is Jewish
Israeli. Palestinians would have sovereignty over the plaza of the
mosques and Israelis over the Western Wall.
Refugees: Palestinian refugees would
either move to the new state of Palestine, be rehabilitated in their
host country, resettle in a third country or be admitted to Israel if
Israel so chose. None would have the right to return to Israel against
Israel's will.
One of the reasons there has been so
little clarity regarding this offer is that it evolved over eight
months. The first offer made by Israel to the Palestinians in
preparation for the July 2000 Camp David summit was for nearly 60
percent of the West Bank. Over time it could grow to 80 percent. The
Palestinians walked out, and the next offer was for 87 percent. At Camp
David itself, the offer was for 91 percent plus a 1 percent swap. In
other words, the Palestinians were right to say no with such
consistency. The deal kept improving. What they did not know was when to
say yes.
Jerusalem: What is Arab in the city
would be Palestinian and what is Jewish Israeli. Palestinians would have
sovereignty over the plaza of the mosques and Israelis over the Western
Wall.
Refugees: Palestinian refugees would
either move to the new state of Palestine, be rehabilitated in their
host country, resettle in a third country or be admitted to Israel if
Israel so chose. None would have the right to return to Israel against
Israel's will.
One of the reasons there has been so
little clarity regarding this offer is that it evolved over eight
months. The first offer made by Israel to the Palestinians in
preparation for the July 2000 Camp David summit was for nearly 60
percent of the West Bank. Over time it could grow to 80 percent. The
Palestinians walked out, and the next offer was for 87 percent. At Camp
David itself, the offer was for 91 percent plus a 1 percent swap. In
other words, the Palestinians were right to say no with such
consistency. The deal kept improving. What they did not know was when to
say yes.
As important as this work is to
history, I am sorry to report that it makes little contribution to the
art of storytelling. It is overly long and frequently dull. In 800-plus
pages, Ross offers a landscape virtually devoid of humanity. We do not
really get to know any of the leaders or any of Ross's close colleagues.
What was it like to negotiate with Assad? We aren't told. Instead, we
are treated to endless talk of the need for sleep and a shower.
There are a few spots where Ross lets
his hair down. He clearly views Benjamin Netanyahu, the Likud politician
and former prime minister, with contempt, and he says so. And as the
Lewinsky and impeachment scandals start to overtake Clinton in late
1998, Ross observes him during a negotiation writing on his yellow legal
pad, ''Focus on your job, focus on your job, focus on your job.''
There is also one exceptionally
poignant and prescient moment near the book's end. It is Dec. 29, 2000,
and Arafat still will not say yes. Ahmed Qurei, known as Abu Ala, a top
Palestinian negotiator (later he became prime minister), has come to see
Ross, who tells him the new president, George W. Bush, will want to have
nothing to do with Arafat after Clinton's experience.
''Mark my words,'' Ross reports telling
Abu Ala, ''they will disengage from the issue and . . . you will have
Sharon as prime minister. He will be elected for sure if there is no
deal, and your 97 percent will become 40 to 45 percent; your capital in
East Jerusalem will be gone. . . .
''He looked at me sadly and with a note
of complete resignation, replied, 'I am afraid it may take another 50
years to settle this now.'
'' End |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|